Pence Selection is an Uninspiring yet Savvy Move for Trump

Numerous media outlets reported today that Governor Mike Pence of Indiana is slated to become Donald Trump's running mate. The official announcement was scheduled for tomorrow morning in New York, however the Trump campaign has delayed the event due to today's attack in France. The campaign has also refused to confirm that Mr. Pence is indeed the selection. If the governor is indeed the pick, he represents the best option for Mr. Trump among the shortlist of candidates the real estate mogul had developed over the summer (Gingrich, Christie, Sessions).

Trump's VP selection represents a central part of his campaign and is likely the most important strategic decision he will make. The best political options for the campaign (Haley, Rubio, Martinez) all indicated early on they did not want to enter themselves into consideration for the job. Therefore, Trump was stuck with Chris Christie and Newt Gingrich, both highly unpopular figures among the general electorate; Jeff Sessions, an ultra-conservative unknown senator from a reliably red state; and Mike Pence, an unpopular red state governor.

Mike Pence on March 25, 2015. From abc7chicago.com

Pence does have more favorable qualities as a running mate than the others and probably helps Trump as Cleveland draws near. A spokeswoman from the Trump campaign discussed the governor in an interview today with Bloomberg in which she flouted his status as a proven social conservative. She also talked about how he presents himself as a clear member of the establishment with strong Washington credentials, yet is unafraid to lean far to the right when the occasion merits it. His personality and disposition also distinctly contrasts with Trump's. Pence is sober and measured where Trump is bombastic and crude.

However, significant drawbacks to his appointment exist for the campaign. FiveThirtyEight expressed in a piece that Trump gains essentially a "generic Republican" and described the governor as a "57-year-old white man; the governor of a midsize, red-leaning state; someone with very conservative but otherwise conventionally Republican policy positions." That is the essence of the issue with the selection of Pence. He is an unexciting, relatively unpopular governor of a red state. But Trump could have done a lot worse. If Pence is indeed the pick, he is certainly the best of a shallow bench of candidates.

Interview:http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/07/trump_delays_announcing_vp_pic.html#incart_m-rpt-1
Article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-mike-pence-would-be-trumps-least-worst-choice/

Trump's Insidious Appeal

Donald Trump - Portrait; from DonkeyHotey on Flickr

The notion that whites no longer enjoy predominance in American society is accepted by a considerable amount of the population. From a simple demographic perspective, the percentage of white Americans has been shrinking for a number of years. As minority populations rise and move to all corners of the country, many white Americans feel a very keen sense of decline and threat. And in a country with a racial history as hostile and complicated as ours, those emotions often manifest themselves in hateful and discriminatory rhetoric as well as violence. The candidacy of Donald Trump has certainly tapped into that psyche as it targets uneducated, poor whites as its key voting bloc.

The New York Times encapsulated the idea of Donald Trump as a champion for underprivileged whites in an excellent feature published this morning. It extensively details the psychology behind the Trump voter through insightful interviews and analysis. And for those who claim (including myself) they "don't know anyone supporting Trump," this piece offers great insight into the mind of the Trump voter. The section on college students in support of Trump struck me as particularly perceptive. It discusses how these campuses -- considered bastions of liberalism -- are, in the minds of many students, suffocating free speech. These students, much like poor white workers, feel as if their America is on the decline.

Trump harnesses these ideas and intuitively embraces them. But he will ultimately let these voters down either in defeat or through governance. He has exhibited an erratic and mercurial temperament; spouted deeply troubling sentiments almost daily; and harbors a deep resentment toward all who disagree with him. But, it is important to understand why people are voting for him, and not to dismiss him as a minor candidate with no chance of winning. Trump voters are real people and should not be discounted as racist or uneducated either. But the answer to their grievances surely isn't Donald J. Trump. Yet, the party of Eisenhower and Reagan is set to nominate him next week here in Cleveland.

Link to article: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/14/us/politics/donald-trump-white-identity.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

The Dwindling Viability of Never Trump

From the Wikimedia Commons

Throughout the election cycle, voter hesitancy to support Donald Trump has been widely reported, despite his string of primary victories and relative success. A vocal sect of Republican voters have asserted their intention to never vote for Mr. Trump, although he is the presumptive nominee. Going into the convention, these "Never Trump" voters have been actively organizing to at least make a public show of their disapproval, as unseating Mr. Trump as the nominee will be difficult for a number of reasons.

An article published yesterday by Henry Gomez of cleveland.com explains how the "Never Trump" sect has been struggling to reach a suitable alternative to present at the convention. However, Gomez states that former New Hampshire senator Gordon Humphrey has recently urged Gov. John Kasich to reconsider entering the race at the convention. Gomez concedes that Kasich unseating Trump is a longshot several times, but nonetheless maintains his thesis through support from several sources who do not explicitly rule out a Kasich coup while claiming there are no active plans for such an action. The article seems to paint this as the last chance "Never Trump" has to get an actual nominee on the floor, but that institutional support across the board remains lacking.

Another article on the "Never Trump" movement by Tom LoBianco and Tal Kopan similarly paints the "Never Trump" movement as running on fumes at this point. They simply give "Five things to watch" this week in Cleveland simply to see if "Never Trump" has any sort of shot at the convention. They paint a picture of a party that is deeply fractured as it arrives in town, unable to agree on its platform and attempting to at least present itself as unified.

Both articles leave open the possibility of an unhinged convention, while conceding that is becoming more and more unlikely as the party tries to put unity and order first.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2016/07/a_key_ally_is_urging_john_kasi.html#incart_m-rpt-1

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/10/politics/five-things-rnc-convention/

Myself

I'm Will Hudson, a senior, majoring in Political Science from Auburn, Alabama. I was drawn to this course because I wanted to participate in the convention from the moment I knew it would take place in Cleveland. Since the RNC -- and particularly this RNC -- presents an historic and unique opportunity for our city, I felt compelled to take part, and this course supplements my internship perfectly. Here at school, I serve as President of the Student Union, work as a consultant in the Writing Center, and am a member of the Beta Theta Pi Fraternity.