Saturday, July 16, 2016

The Approaching Exploitation of Unrest and Tragedy for Political Gain

What an exhausting week in news.

Two recent events overseas have shaken the world and will certainly prove to have a major ripple effect in American politics. First, the rogue truck disaster in Nice, France has forced terrorism and ISIS to remain as central issues in the presidential election. It enhances the ability for Republicans and Donald Trump to make the case that the Western world is unsafe, vulnerable to terror, and that the government and military needs to play a larger role in fighting Islamic terror outfits. I fully expect Republican politicians and Mr. Trump to espouse that theme in their rhetoric at the convention this week. Polling indicates that Mr. Trump receives high marks versus Hillary Clinton on the issue of national security and he will undoubtedly use the Nice attack to his political advantage.

From a Telegraph story, Jan. 2012
The details are still murky on the other major event of the week, but the military coup attempt in Turkey will also likely factor into the candidates' political calculus While neither candidate has extensively commented on the situation, it represents a major security issue for the government. A compelling analysis published today in the New York Times discussed how this failed coup made an already volatile region more turbulent. It puts the government in the difficult spot of whether they support a non-democratic coup against a leader with which they have a difficult relationship. But the Times piece asserted that issue is secondary to the conflict an unstable Turkey would create in regards to American policy on ISIS. In order for the "fight" against ISIS to maintain its recent success on the ground in Iraq and Syria, Turkey must remain "a willing host to American forces and a stable player in the world’s most volatile corner." I expect both candidates realize this and will likely express their hope for stability to return in Turkey, although both will likely develop attack lines from the situation to target each other.

Poll: http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-conventions/clinton-leads-trump-diverse-battleground-states-new-polls-n609551
Article: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/16/world/europe/erdogan-turkey-coup-us-fear.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

1 comment:

  1. Be sure to clarify which "government" you are talking about when referring to foreign affairs -- Turkey's or the U.S. government, for example, in the final paragraph. Otherwise it's confusing.

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